A little January thaw

A little January thaw is underway here in the eastern U.S. We finally went above freezing this week for the first time since December 12th.  Daytime highs Friday and Saturday will be quite mild...well into the 40s. We may evening hit 50 in some neighborhoods on Saturday.  After that, colder air comes in Saturday night and next week we should see temperatures around normal. Our normal highs should be in the lower 30s.  Some days will be below that, some a bit above, but generally a bit more normal. Considering that January is the coldest month of the year, I'll take that.

Meanwhile, AccuWeather's Joe Bastardi is starting to talk about a potential cold outbreak (like many degrees below normal) beginning mid-January and continuing for a few weeks. The National Weather Service long range maps don't show that yet. I hope that doesn't happen here in NE Ohio, but we'll keep an eye on it.

Meanwhile, enjoy the "warm"!

After Christmas

Weather here in the lower Great Lakes is going to take a pleasant turn as we get into the days after Christmas. First of all, though, we have to wait for this big east coast storm to exit early in the week.  Once is does our winds will shift from the north to a more southerly direction and that will warm things up beginning Tuesday.

The beginning of the Christmas snow in North Carolina

My friend Brian, who used to live here in Akron, now lives near Charlotte, NC. It doesn't usually snow down there for Christmas. It is this year. (See his picture at left.) They are picking up several inches of the white stuff this weekend. After dumping snow in North Carolina, that system is going to head up the coast and on Sunday and Monday, blizzard and near blizzard conditions are expected from Philadelphia to Boston. If you plan to travel out that way, check ahead.  You really don't want to travel out there until Tuesday.

Meanwhile, back here in NE Ohio, on Tuesday we should get near or slightly above freezing. If we go above 32 degrees it will be for the first time since December 12th.  We will remain there (daytime highs) for several days. In fact, a surge of warm air heading into the region will push our daytime highs into the 40s on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. After that our temperatures should bounce around a lot.

Or normal daytime high in early January should be in the lower 30s. January and February are traditionally the coldest months of the year.  Last year February was a killer clocking in at nearly 3 degrees below normal.  I don't expect that this year.  As I mentioned earlier, while we will have some typical winter weather during the next two months, the pit of the winter has already passed.  We do look for another surge of cold, however, sometime in March.

Happy Holidays!

I'm still dreaming of a white Christmas

(Snowfall map courtesy of www.accuweather.com)

Not that this is by any means a surprise, but I do believe we are going to have a white Christmas. In fact about 50% of the nation will have a white Christmas.  Normal would be 33%, so this year will be whiter than normal. And, then you have Europe and snow in London. Gads, it's like Charles Dickens' days all over again.

I think one of the really neat Christmas treats this year will be snow falling on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. You will notice on the map above that lake effect is not shown. Add in the lake effect and you can fill in that brown section of NE Ohio.  We won't see too much, but we will pick up an inch or so over the weekend.

That being said, best wishes from my cat Bomber and me for a very Merry Christmas!

No major events

Courtesy of www.accuweather.com

After two weeks of serious lake effect, we are going to remain in a fairly relaxed pattern for a while.  There will be some weather move through the region during the next several days, but the lake effect should remain under control.

Checking the long range maps, I don't seen anything more than just a couple of inches between now and Tuesday. Wow! That means for the first time in three weeks we will have a Monday where we won't be measuring the snowfall in feet.  :-)

I'll be heading to New York City over the weekend and won't be back until Thursday. If I see anything big coming along, I'll let you know. Otherwise, just sit back, relax, and enjoy the final weeks of December.

Ah...the beginning of the end (Tuesday 12:30pm)

Interesting how the lake effect snow pattern has changed this afternoon.  The snow seems to be centered in a very small area across parts of central and northern Summit County and northern Portage County.  It's been that way for most of the morning.

Most of the area will not see too much additional snowfall today, although those areas where the snow persists will see a few inches fall. Basically, this is the beginning of the end. While flurries and snow showers will likely continue into tomorrow, the big stuff is over.

Time to dig out!

At some point this stops being fun...

I think we are reaching the point where we want to yell, "ENOUGH ALREADY!" However, I must say it is a thing of natural beauty just watching the snow fall and accumulate the way it has been.

Anyhow, looks like one more crazy day then we will start to turn around. South of I-76 it should be a 3-5 inch day today.  North, once again, upwards to a foot.  (5-10 inches is what I have in the forecast.)  Overnight tonight the winds will start to back off and we should only see a few new inches.  Same for tomorrow. Then, toward the end of the week, the sun will peak through once again.  The sun...you remember what that is, don't you?

Enjoy!

Lake effect continues... (Monday 11am)

Looks like the lake effect snow will continue through the day tomorrow as we expected.  We should finally  get a break on Wednesday. Meanwhile, here's what the numbers look like:

New snow this afternoon 3-6 inches (heaviest north of I-76)
Tonight an additional 3-7 inches
Tomorrow an additional 3-6 inches

Enjoy!

Winter Storm Update (Monday 9am)

The view from my apartment.
This was when you could see across the
parking lot. It got worse right after I
took this picture. Those cars disappeared.

Horizontal snow is never a very good thing.  My neighbors just disappeared.  I think they are there somewhere, I just can't see them through the snow.

Here's my morning forecast.  No real changes, however, we may have to up the snow accumulation total this afternoon. It's coming down pretty good right now.


WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY!

Today - Windy with heavy lake effect snow, blowing and drifting. New snow by evening 4-10 inches. The heavier amounts will occur north of I-76.
High 21



Tonight - Windy with snow continuing accumulating an additional 3-5 inches.
Low 11

Tuesday - Windy with lakre effect snow continuing.
High 22.

Winter Storm Update (Sunday 6pm)

I'm pleased to say that the forecast really hasn't changed much since our last update. You know, I'm kind of enjoying this weather. It was so nice last night and this afternoon that twice I walked up to K-Mart from my apartment.  It's only a 10 minute walk one-way and I could have driven, but it was very pleasant just cranking up the MP3 tunage and walking in the snow. Anyhow, back to the forecast...

Overnight tonight a trough will cross the area and that will do three things:  the winds will increase, the temperature will drop, and the lake effect snow will begin. After that happens, nothing will change much until Wednesday.

As for snowfall totals, here's what I'm looking for with the heavier amounts north of I-76. These numbers represent total snow on the ground, not new snowfall for that period.

7am Monday - 3-5 inches
7pm Monday - 8-10 inches
7am Tuesday - 12-15 inches
Additional moderate to heavy snow accumulation is likely during the day Tuesday

With the wind blowing and snow falling, there will be times when driving will very dangerous.  Be careful out there.

Enjoy!

Winter Storm Update (Sunday 6am)

Today’s AlterNation Weather Forecast
(Updated: Sunday, December 12, 2010 at 6:01 AM)

WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY!

Sunday - December 12
Becoming windy with rain changing to snow late morning or early afternoon accumulating 1-3 inches by evening. Morning high 38 turning colder after noon.

Tonight
Lake effect snow will develop with accumulations of
3-5 inches by Monday morning. Winds will increase causing considerable blowing and drifting.
Low 18


Monday - December 13
Windy with heavy lake effect snow, blowing and drifting. Total snow by Monday evening 8-10 inches.
Snow will continue overnight totaling 10-12 inches by Tuesday morning.
Monday’s High 21


Tuesday - December 14
Windy with heavy lake effect snow continuing with additional accumulation.
High 22


Wednesday - December 15
Mostly cloudy and cold with occasional flurries and snow showers.
High 24

Winter Storm Update (Saturday 7pm)

Things remain on schedule for a significant snowfall across the region Sunday night into Tuesday. At the moment rain is moving up across the state and should reach the Greater Akron area around midnight. The rain will change to snow tomorrow. There's a conflict as to when the air will get cold enough for the changeover. At the latest it will be early afternoon. At the earliest it will be a few hours after daybreak.

Winds will gradually increase during the day Sunday, but will really get cranking after dark. By 6am Monday they should be in the range of 20-25 mph with gusts over 35 mph. With snow falling, that should make for a nasty morning commute.

The heaviest snowfall is expected to occur during the day Monday into Monday night with the strong winds continuing.

Lake effect snowfall is anything but an exact science, but since we love to hear specifics (which are really not specifics at all...just intelligent guesses) here are some snowfall numbers for you:

7pm Sunday - total snow 1-3 inches
7am Monday - total snow 3-5 inches
7pm Monday - total snow 8-12 inches
7am Tuesday - total snow 10-14 inches

Just as last week, the heaviest snowfall is expected north of I-76. Remember, these are just intelligent guesses at the moment and will have to be updated once the snow begins.

To my snowplowing friends, rest up during the day Sunday. For the rest of you, get done what you have to do before Sunday dinner.

Winter Storm Update (Friday 8pm)

Everything appears to be on track for another major lake effect snow event (no tickets needed for admission) beginning late Sunday and continuing into midweek.

Winds will start to increase Sunday afternoon and will reach levels of 30-40 mph with stronger gusts overnight Sunday. Initial snowfall will begin Sunday afternoon with 3-4 inches likely by Monday morning. Combine that with the wind, and visibilities will be extremely low by daybreak. It looks like the Monday commute is not going to be pleasant.

Lake effect snow will continue Monday into Tuesday with amounts similar to last week...meaning a foot or more...especially north of I-76.

Just to give you an idea of what we expect, the forecast computer printouts I'm looking at for 5am-6am Monday morning are showing snow with winds of 30-37 mph, a temperature of 17, and a wind chill of -10.

Ah...welcome to winter! And, hey...be careful out there!

Rain for most of the weekend...then LAKE EFFECT!

We have seen a drastic change in the path of the weekend storm. It appears to be headed into Michigan, which will put us in he warm sector most of the weekend. However, by Sunday night some serious lake effect is expected develop just as last week and continue into Tuesday. Snow fall totals my be similar to a week ago, so It would be good to keep up on later forecasts.

"Hold the phone...!"

While our expected weekend storm is getting itself together, the latest information makes it appear that the storm will actually scoot across northwest Ohio.  What that means is that the heavy snow will be back in the Chicago area and we will see a combination of rain and snow here in NE Ohio.

We are, however, going to have to be concerned about lake effet as we go into Sunday night and Monday. It's likely that the lake effect will end up producing more snow in northeast Ohio than the storm system itself.

At present, here's what I think is going to happen: Saturday is just going to be a cloudy day. Snow Saturday night will total 2-4 inches before turning to rain on Sunday. On Sunday the winds will increase and turn to a more northwesterly direction. The rain will turn back to snow and overnight lake effect will kick in with much colder temperatures and strong NW winds. Additional snow accumulation is likely and that will continue into Monday. On Monday wind chills will be around -10 degrees at times.

As for snow totals, be sure to keep up on later forecast. With lake effect you never know for sure what is going to happen until it starts to happen.

Here we go again!

Graphic courtesy of www.accuweather.com

Enjoy the little break we're going to get between this lake effect event and our next big storm system.  Looks like we have a good one winding up for the last half of the weekend.

As we look into the crystal ball, here's what we see...a storm will develop over the southern plains and then move northeast into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. By Saturday night we could have a pretty decent snow coming down.  That will continue into Sunday and then be followed by strong gusty winds and more lake effect for the first part of next week. Add to that the coldest air of the season (daytime highs on Tuesday may not get out of the teens) and we are in for a wintry treat once again.

Keep up on later forecasts for expected snowfall totals.

Here we go! Get out your boards and skis!

(graphic courtesy of www.accuweather.com)

The weather gods are ready to dump on us.  If all goes as they plan (and remember, lake effect snow is not an exact science) we are going to have an interesting few days ahead of us. The joys will begin today and continue into Tuesday.

At the moment (Sunday morning), here is what the forecast snow amounts look like:
   1-3 inches by Sunday evening
   4-6 inches on the ground by Monday morning
   8-10 inches by Monday night
   10-14 inches by Tuesday night

We are going to have to add strong, gusty winds to the forecast as well and that will make travel a bit complicated beginning tomorrow morning.

For my snow plowing friends, sleep well today because me thinks you are in for a long few days.

Enjoy!

It's December and it's snowing

   As if Mother Nature knew how to read a calendar, how clever that on the first day of December it snowed in Northeast Ohio.
   Well, I mentioned in earlier posts that right after Thanksgiving things were going to take a turn to colder. They did.  And now the second part of the winter arrival is underway.  The cold air will hang around for a few weeks. It's may even make it to Christmas. Nonetheless, we will begin to see snow, finally.  The slopes are blowing snow and the weather maps indicate that natural white stuff is headed our way. We should see a variety of storm systems and lake effect setting up between now and the holidays.
   Enjoy!