Winter Storm Update (Monday evening)

A "WINTER STORM WARNING" will be in effect overnight tonight into Wednesday evening.

Map courtesy of www.accuweather.com

We will start to see the first effects of this winter weather event overnight tonight as snow moving across Indiana this evening reaches eastern Ohio. We will likely see 3-4 inches of new snow by daybreak.

Tomorrow snow will continue off and on with a total snow of 4-6 inches by evening.

The snow will change to freezing rain Tuesday evening (sometime between 7pm and midnight) and continue overnight.  By Wednesday morning total snowfall will be 5-7 inches with an ice accumulation of 1/4 to 1/2 inch. It will also become windy overnight.

The morning commute on Wednesday will be quite nasty with freezing rain and snow and the likelihood of downed power lines and tree branches.

During the morning Wednesday the freezing rain will change over to all snow with a total snowfall of 7-10 inches by evening.

On top of the snow, freezing rain, and wind temperatures on Wednesday will fall from near 30 in the morning into the lower 20s by evening.

Looks like a good one...stay home and enjoy!

Storm timing

Obviously, subject to change, but based on the current models, here's what I see happening in the Greater Akron area:

Light snow will begin tonight (Monday) after 9pm and accumulate 1-3 inches by morning.

Flurries and snow showers will fall during the day tomorrow.

Snow will begin again tomorrow (Tuesday) after dark.

Snow will mix with or change to freezing rain between 9pm and midnight. It will also become windy overnight.

By 3am the entire area should be getting freezing rain.

By 9am, ice buildup will range from 1/4" to 1/2".

I will update the times and totals as the storm gets closer and the exact track is determined.

Monday morning storm update

Things are still on track for a big weather event here in NE Ohio Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. There's not much showing up yet on radar out in the plains, but we should see things come together today and then move into the Ohio Valley.

For the Greater Akron area is looks like snow will begin Tuesday evening and continue overnight with freezing rain mixed in.  It's also going to get a bit windy. By Wednesday morning areas that see mostly snow will have 4-8 inches on the ground.  Most areas will see a mix of snow and freezing rain.  The freezing rain may produce 1/2" to 3/4" of ice.  If that actually happens, it will cause considerable damage to  power lines and trees.

The National Weather Service currently has us under a Winter Storm Watch.  That will be likely be  upgraded later today to a warning.

It shouldn't have to be this difficult

Why is it that we most always are on the edge of this or that?  The latest computer models are now trying to move the center of the storm right over top of us early Wednesday morning.  If that happens, warmer air will infiltrate parts of the region changing the snow and freezing rain to all rain for a period of time.  It's possible, as I hinted earlier, that the region could be split. It all depends upon what Fido decides to do.  (If that doesn't make sense to you, read my earlier posts.)

Map courtesy of www.accuweather.com

So, let me try to make some sense here.  First of all Monday night into Tuesday morning we will collect a few inches of snow (1-3) as a surge of warmer air moves through.  Tuesday night the joy begins with snow and freezing rain.  We will probably stay snow and freezing rain during most of the night.  If there is a changeover to rain it will occur just before rush hour.  The areas that remain all snow could see 6-8 inches by daybreak.  Where freezing rain occurs the snow total will be less, but ice buildup of 1/2" of more will be possible. That will likely cause tree branches to break and power lines to go down.  If a changeover to rain occurs, it will be during the morning hours, with snow returning in the afternoon.

Anyway you cut it, it's going to be a bit ugly Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Keep checking back.  As the storm starts moving out of the plains we will get a better idea where it wants to go.

Oh, by the way, the groundhog will not see his shadow on Wednesday. Woo Hoo!  The end of winter is near!  (Yeah...right.)

If it really gets this bad...it will be really bad

Checking out the Sunday morning forecast models.  This is scary.  Seriously...if things work out the way the models are predicting Wednesday is not going to be a day to be out and about. Here's what it looks like as of this morning.  Now, keep in mind that winter storms are like pets.  Sometimes you expect them to do one thing and they do something else...like "Come here Fido."  So, he gets up and walks over to the corner and lies down instead.

We will start off with a little teaser Monday night...like an inch or two by Tuesday morning. Nothing to write home about.  Then, after dark on Tuesday, the fun begins.

Scenario #1 - All Snow
The line between snow and ice will be pushing close to the Akron area Tuesday night and Wednesday.  In fact, the area could get split.  But, let's assume we have all snow. In those areas the snow will begin after dark on Tuesday.  By Wednesday morning some areas would have 6" to 8" of new snow on the ground.  The overnight snowfall rate could be 1"+ an hour at times. Snow would continue on Wednesday with several more inches falling along with strong, gusty winds and blowing and drifting snow.

Scenario #2 - Snow and Ice
This is the one that is really frightening.  If this occurs, the area could be shut down for a period of time.  The models are printing out from 1/2" to over 1" of ice buildup overnight Tuesday.  That much ice would cause havoc on tree branches and power lines, not to mention roadways. With this scenario, snowfall will  be cut back considerably to less than 6" total by Wednesday evening. Nonetheless, the area would become immobile by Wednesday morning.

Whichever scenario develops, we should see things back off by late in the day Wednesday.  With Lake Erie frozen, we won't have to worry too much about lake effect.  That's the one good thing in the forecast.

Until we can get a more definite track on the storm, I would plan for the worst.  Stock up on food and plan for power outages. It's the millenium so it won't be that long until you can get back out (not like the 50s when people got stuck in their houses for a week at a time), but, then again, you may not want to go out for awhile.

More later...

Winter storm on the way

   Next week is looking rather nasty. Early in the week a storm system will move out of the Rockies, down into Texas, and then up the Ohio Valley. For us that means snow with perhaps a bit of sleet and freezing rain mixed in.

Map courtesy of www.AccuWeather.com

   Based on the current projections, the fun should begin in NE Ohio after midnight on Tuesday and continue into the day on Wednesday.  Forecast models are showing between 4-10 inches of snow, depending upon whether or not we mix in the freezing rain and sleet.  As always, the exact track of the storm will make a difference. On the current track the Greater Akron area should get lots of snow, but if the storm moves a bit farther north, then we will get the mix.  We won't really know until it happens. Anyway you look at it, overnight Tuesday and during the day Wednesday won't be so nice.
   More as we know it.  Meanwhile, plan ahead.

Below ZERO for the first time in nearly two years!

Wow!  What an exciting morning it was Saturday (22 January).  The temperature here at the Weather Center dropped to -4 degrees! This is the first time we dropped below zero since 5 February 2009.  That morning was also a -4 degrees.

Actually January and February of 2009 both had some rather cold days in them. January was the kicker though.  Remember the two mornings of January 16th and 17th when the temperature drooped to -14 degrees?  Now that was crisp!

Well, nothing like that is in our immediate future, although there is a hint in the models that we could get another really cold push of arctic air in February. Nothing for certain yet, but our friend Joe Bastardi over at AccuWeather is getting all excited.  We shall see.  Meanwhile, keep the dogs (or your cat) nearby just in case.

Enjoy!

A "Three Dog Night" is on the way

If you love cold winter weather, you'll enjoy the next few weeks.  Looks like the coldest air of the winter is heading our way and will likely hang around for a while, nixing our anticipation of a significant January thaw.  Looks like that will have to wait until very late this month or sometime in February.

How cold are we talking?  Well, I don't see us going above freezing until the last few days of the month at the earliest. Daytime highs through midweek this week will be in the 20s. Next weekend daytime highs will be in the teens.  After a few warm nights early this week overnight lows will drop into the teens and single digits for a while. Oye!

Bomber resting comfortably on my electric blanket

Oh, about the dogs...see the story goes that the Eskimos on really cold nights would bring the dogs in to the igloo to sleep with them and keep them warm.  So, a three dog night was a very cold night...it took three dogs to keep warm.

I sleep with my cat Bomber and an electric blanket, so I'll be OK.  Hope you will be, too.

Well, it's cold

Yep.  Let's start out with the obvious.  Arctic air has moved into Ohio. It's going to remain here for awhile...like the next two weeks.  Then as we get to the end of the month, the arctic blast will move north and warmer air will push into the region.

Our normal high for the next few weeks is in the low 30s. This is what is commonly referred to as "the dead of winter." We will be well below that normal high this coming week (January 9-16), then we'll probably start to bounce around again the week after that. I foresee some pretty cold overnights in our future, especially next week when we could hit the single digits. You might need to bring the dog in to sleep with you.

(Map courtesy of www.accuweather.com)

Of note this week will be LOW pressure system moving across the state on Tuesday (see map). This is going to be an interesting storm because as it moves into Ohio it will eventually merge with a storm currently moving across the south. The new storm will then head north dumping snow in New England.  As this happens, our winds will shift to the NW kicking in lake effect once again. Looks like we can expect 3-6 inches of snow from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning.  Then later Wednesday into Thursday the lake effect develops.  Sounds like a typical January here in the lower Great Lakes.

BTW...as I noted in earlier posts, I'm measuring the rest of the winter against December's cold and snow. While we are going to be cold for a few weeks and get some snow as well, I still don't think we're going to beat December.

Winter sports fans...enjoy!

Welcome to January 2011

Well, here we are...2011.  The spring-type weather (warm temperatures and rain) have left us and it's back to normal January type weather. Our normal daytime high for January ranges from 32-34. We will be hanging around that mark for the much of the month.  We will have a few warm spurts and a few colder ones, too. But, I suspect the prolonged cold...3 consecutive weeks below freezing...are gone for awhile.

As for snow, there will be some.  We're not done yet.  In fact, winter is only a few weeks old.  With Lake Erie cooling down, the temperature contrast between the water and the air is less and that will dampen Ole Man Winter's lake effect efforts. What we have to watch for, however, will be any storm system moving from the southwest or the Gulf coastal area.  If it decides to come up the west side of Appalachians, standby.  That could be a scenario for heavy snow in eastern Ohio.

So, basically, I think that after the unusually cold and snowy December we just had (the temperature was 6.6 degrees below normal and well over two feet of snow fell in the northern parts of Portage and Summit counties) January will likely produce a much more normal winter scenario.

Winter sports enthusiasts, enjoy!