Wet and Colder!

Overnight rainfall total at the Weather Center as of 7:30am = 1.38 inches.

The temperature dropped from 51 degrees at 6:30am to 37 degrees at 7:30am.

And now comes rain

One thing about Northeast Ohio weather, it rarely gets dull. Less than three days after heavy snow, heavy rain is in the forecast. Here's the scenario:

Map time: 7pm Monday
Rainfall for Portage and Summit Counties
is forecast to be 1.5" or more by Monday evening.
(Map courtesy of www.accuweather.com)

Warmer air is going to push into the area on Sunday. By Monday morning a strong LOW will be located around western Lake Erie. By late Monday a second weaker LOW will be moving into the Ohio Valley. At the same time, a cold front will be sweeping across the state. (Whew!) With Monday's daytime highs in the mid 50s, some thundershowers are also a possibility.

Rainfall amounts of 1" to 1.5" will be general across the area. Combine that with the melting snow, and localized flooding is going to be a definite reality.

The rain should move out quickly Monday night and Tuesday will be mostly sunny and a bit cooler.

Nasty Rush hour coming for Friday

Here we go! During the day today the forecast models were sort of in a state of flux as to exactly where this approaching storm center was going to go. Well, we seem to have reached a consensus...and it's not good news for the morning rush hour.

A storm system is going to move from Cincinnati up the Ohio River Valley to near Pittsburgh by morning and that’s going to give us some rather significant snow.

Rain will begin after dark. The snow will begin shortly after midnight and continue into tomorrow afternoon.

Winds will pick up about midnight as well making for a very messing situation for the Friday rush hour.

The forecast models I’m looking at at the moment are showing snowfall rates of ½ to 1 inch an hour for the morning rush along with winds of 15-25mph accompanied by stronger gusts. The National Weather Service, however, is indicating that snowfall rates could reach more than an inch an hour at times during the morning rush hour. If that occurs, it will really be ugly for the commute.

By late morning the snow will back off, but we will still pick up a few inches during the day. We’ll probably end up with 6-10 inches by Friday evening.

More to come

Graphic courtesy of www.accuweather.com

If you enjoyed that last round of ice and snow, we have another round coming later this week, although it looks like less ice.

Another storm system will move to our south. The best track now looks like it will go far enough south to put a heavier swath of snow across the northern part of the state. Rain might be the precipitation of choice at the beginning on Thursday. Then we're probably looking at 3-6 inches of snow Thursday night and early Friday depending upon exactly where it tracks. As things go, that's not bad.  Just enough to cause some problems.

On a warmer note, looks like about two or two and half more weeks of this before the pattern shifts and the warmer air starts to move north.  That will be around the second or third week of March.  Woo Hoo!

The tease is over

Courtesy of www.accuweather.com

Well, that's it. The tease of Spring is over. Colder air is moving into the area for the weekend and the early part of next week. Along with it will be occasional snow showers. By the end of next week we will starting to warm up again - not the 50s, but the 40s - then we will cool down again for awhile. So, Spring is not here to stay, but we will get some spring-like temperatures from time to time along with rain and snow. Yeah, this is the time of year it gets old and drags on...and on...and on.

Enjoy as best you can!

40 degrees? It's been awhile...quite awhile.

The last time we were above 40 degrees here in the Akron area was New Years Day.  Well, we did it today! The thermometer here at the Weather Center hit 40 degrees late this morning.  Unfortunately, yesterday when we hit the mid 30s it didn't feel quite so warm because of the wind chill.  The stiff northerly breeze we had was knocking 10-12 degrees off the "feels like" temperature. It's still going to be breezy the next few days, but it will also be a bit warmer so, it's sort of a trade-off.

The really good news will arrive on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday when we hit daytime highs in the 40s and even the 50s. By Friday afternoon (probably well before that) you can say good-bye to the snow cover, except for those "snowbergs" at the edges of parking lots and driveways.


The two maps below show snow cover across the Northeast U.S.  The top map shows how much snow is on the ground this morning (Sunday). The bottom map shows the forecast snow cover for Wednesday afternoon.  Note that by Wednesday most of the snow in southern and central Ohio will be gone with only an inch or so on the ground in the northeast. Getting rid of the snow to the south will help our temperatures warmup since the mild air coming up will not have to blow over an icy cold snow pack and thus cool down on its way northward.


Now, before you get too excited, let me note that another surge of cold air is set to arrive next weekend, but at least daytime highs will still be a bit above freezing...probably mid to upper 30s.  

Sunday morning snow cover

Forecast snow cover for Wednesday afternoon

It's coming...it's coming!

Map courtesy of www.accuweather.com

It's been a long time since we have been significantly above freezing here in NE Ohio.  January 18th we hit 37 degrees and that's the best we've done recently.  Well, the good news is that warmer temperatures are on the way. Beginning Wednesday we should finally bounce into the 40s and actually stay there for daytime highs through the weekend. In fact, much of the nation from the plains to the east coast is going to warm up.

Now, don't get too excited.  Winter is not over yet, at least not around the Great Lakes. We'll still have temperature swings above and below freezing, but prospects for extended periods of very cold weather diminish as every day passes.  I guess we could say that here is light at the end of the tunnel.  We're not there yet, but we are making progress.

Good news if you are tired of the snow

If you've had enough of the snow for awhile, there's good news. Scratch that potentially big snow storm mid to late week.  Isn't gonna to happen. I don't know too many people who will be upset about that.  This continuous cold and snow is starting to get old, although it was nice to see the sun shining on Friday and Saturday. Yeah, that felt good! It is going to get quite cold the end of the week again, but a nice little warm-up will beging next week.

As noted above, after we get past this coming week, we will start to warm up a bit.  That means going above freezing a little more often.  While winter will be over in the south, here in the lower lakes, we will likely be going back and forth, but at least it's back and forth and not down the tubes. I can handle more snow and cold in short spurts as long as we get some sunshine and warmer temperatures in-between.

Enjoy your week!

Adjusting the timing for weekend snow

The first snow system heading into the region slowed down a bit, so the snow did not arrive overnight.  It's running a few hours late and should be in the area by noon today (Saturday).  We should get 3-5 inches of snow out of this system before the snow ends overnight.

A second snow system will move into the area overnight Sunday and hang around Monday.  This one will leave behind another few inches by late Monday.

Basically, nothing exceptional...just winter snow.

It ain't over yet...just wait till next week!

If you think this week was cold and snowy, next week could be the worst week of the entire winter. We're talking the coldest air of the season and perhaps another big snowstorm.

We'll have a light weight snow system move through the area overnight tonight (Friday) leaving us with just an inch or two.  Sunday night and Monday morning a second snow system will likely leave behind 3-6 inches. Then the big stuff arrives.

Colder air, probably the coldest of the season, will arrive by late Tuesday or early Wednesday. A storm system is expected to develop over Texas and move along the Gulf coast on Wednesday. The LOW will then shoot northeast into the Ohio/Tennessee Valley. If it does what the model expects it to do, it will be snowy, windy, and very cold around these parts during the Wednesday/Thursday time period.  Then, behind the wind and snow, COLD!  Like Friday morning lows could be well below ZERO.

It's not on the maps yet. The storm hasn't developed. But, you will want to keep up with forecasts next week. It could be another week of "fun in the wonderful world of weather".

Oh...wait! Before I go, I do want to point out that after we get past this mess next week, we will turn the corner. A significant warm-up is going to begin the last week of February.  :-)

An early Spring?

Looks like neither Punxsutawney Phil nor Buckeye Chuck saw their shadow today.  That means an early Spring is coming.  Well, after December and January I'm ready for that.  For the record, we should pick up 7 degrees on average for our daytime highs this month. We start off with an average high of 34 and end up at 41.

BUT, WAIT!  THERE'S BETTER NEWS AHEAD!
We have another cold surge coming next week, but after that we are going to turn the corner for awhile.
According to our friend, forecaster Joe Bastardi over at AccuWeather, a big warm-up is on the way for the last half of February.  The forecast models are showing the cold air getting stuck up north while a more zonal pattern develops across the continental U.S. Once we get past Valentine's Day, we should all start to feel "warm all over"....and that will make you and me feel better.

After the storm...What a mess!

Well, we got the ice just as we thought.  Temperatures this morning warmed up nicely to around 40, but that didn't really help much,  The rain falling on the already accumulated ice just made things that much more slippery.  Now temperatures are about to hit the skids, so all that stuff is going to re-freeze.  Oye!

Anyhow, today temperatures will take a dive.  Colder air is currently moving in and the winds are picking up.  The icy glaze we have out there is going to hang around for a while.

Later today, we will probably see more snow...not much...just an inch or so.  Enough to make things just a tad more complicated.

So, if you are going out...be careful.  If you don't have to, stay in. Meanwhile, I'm walking to go out to the kitchen to make me a nice breakfast of scrambled eggs, bacon, and pancakes!  :-)

Winter storm update (Tuesday morning)

Well, some ice moved into the southern region last night.  That caused lots of school closings. Not sure why everything up north closed down today. Tomorrow will be a different story.  Today is not going to be that exciting.

Anyhow, here's what's up for the next 36-hours...

During the day today we will have occasional flurries and snow showers. Not much accumulation today...perhaps an inch or so.

After 5pm today freezing rain will start to move into the areas south of Akron and gradually move northward.

By 2am tomorrow morning (Wednesday) most of the area should be covered with 1/4" of ice.

By 8am 1/2" or more of ice accumulation is likely.

The ice, combined with sustained winds of 15mph with stronger gusts, will likely cause numerous power outages overnight and tomorrow morning.

Things will settle down by tomorrow evening, however temperatures will plummet from around freezing in the morning into the lower 20s by evening.  Brrrrrr!

Hey, the Friday forecast looks good:  Mostly sunny.  High 24.

Woo Hoo!

Enjoy!   (as much as you can)