(Insert YAWN)

I wish there was something exciting to talk about, but there isn't. We remain pretty much in this same weather pattern we have had for quite some time.  No real arctic air is breaking loose and heading into the Great Lakes to stay. During the period between now and Christmas it appears that no significant change will take place. There will be quick shots of colder air coming through and some light-weight snowfall, but, as for cold air coming to camp out and snow storms and winter stuff like that, I think not. The normal highs during the next few weeks should be in the mid 30s. We will be near or above that most of the time. Unless we can get a cold shot right before Christmas, I don't think our chances are looking good for a white Christmas...and if it is white, it won't be very white..maybe just a few inches.

On Wednesday evening I participated in a winter wether webinar with AccuWeather, Senior Expert Meteorologist, Henry Margusity. During the session we discussed this upcoming winter and what we might expect.

Bob Long at the AccuWeather winter weather webinar.

To start, this is going to be a tough forecast.  Long-range forecasters like to look at the past and find years that had similar patterns to the current and then see what happened, then base a forecast off of that.  Well, this year has been unique. In fact, some forecasters say that they can't really find anything that matchs up to the extreme weather we have had this year...for example the October snowstorm along the east coast and in New England and now the unusually warm November.

A few months back we were looking for the cold air to drop into the region right around Thanksgiving and then hang out for several months. It was going to be really cold for a long period of time. It was also going to be quite a snowy winter. That thought seems to have changed a bit. It looks now like the colder air will not be coming in until early to mid December. Margusity says, however, not to expect the cold air to drop in and stay.  He also thinks our area will get some good lake effect snows, but that whether it be lake effect or synoptic, the snow will be "here today" and then "gone in a day or two."  In other words, it will get cold and snow and then warm up a few days later causing the snow to melt. He thinks we could still have normal to slightly above normal snowfall in NE Ohio, but it will have to begin by mid-December for that to happen and that's not a certainty.

As for the usual winter clippers and other synoptic storms, expect most of the snowstorm activity to be in the western Great Lakes, perhaps even west of Chicago and along the east coast.

When it is all over, Margusity says that the record books may show that we had a fairly hard winter, but emotionally - because of the ups and downs - we will likely be saying, "You know, the winter really wasn't that bad."

So, there you have it.  I caution you however, this has been a strange year weatherwise, and you can't rule out anything during the next several months.

Up and Down...and, Up and Down...

Temperatures this week are going to be fluctuating a lot again.  Similar to last week, we will start off mild and then turn colder mid-week followed by a slight warmup for next weekend.
Thanksgiving week is still a bit up in the air at present. The computers are giving us mixed messages. We could get a hefty shot of cold air surging into the lower lakes around the holiday, or things could stay the way they have been. It looks like any "permanent" push of cold air, though, is still a ways off.

Another cold and snowy winter forecast

The National Weather Service issued its winter forecast today. The "good" news is that it goes right along with what we told you to expect in an earlier post.  It is likely to be cold and snowy this winter. If you look at the map to the left you will see that NWS expects us to have a greater than 40% chance of above normal snowfall. In addition, they say we have a better than 33% chance of colder than normal temperatures. Woo hoo! Winter sports enthusiasts will love this!

Here's what we posted earlier in the month:

• Lake effect snow will begin in mid to late November and continuing into early January.
• The coldest time period should by from around Thanksgiving until just past New Years.
• The snowiest period should come during January and February.
• Expect frequent clipper storms to move through the lower Great Lakes.

A few more days, then back to cool and wet

A cold front over the western Great Lakes midweek will
make its way into eastern Ohio late in the week and bring
with it breezy conditions, cooler temperatures,  and showers.

The nice, sunny, above normal temperature weather will continue through midweek, then a change to more Fall-like weather will occur.

Upper 70s to around 80 degree daytime highs will hang around through Tuesday.  We will start a slide downward on Wednesday with highs only in the mid-70s, then a bit cooler on Thursday, and much cooler on Friday. Friday's high will be in the low to mid-60s with even cool highs for the weekend. Toss in some late week and weekend showers and it will be a return to Fall.

So, enjoy these next few days.

Let's take a look at Winter

The winter predictions are starting to come out. One of the first comes from AccuWeather's Long Range forecaster Paul Pastelok. According to Pastelok, we will see a lot of lake effect snow in the area this year. He also sees above normal snowfall for the region in part do to frequent clipper storms moving through the lakes. The heaviest snow, he predicts, will be in January and February. The coldest part of the winter will be from around Thanksgiving until just past New Years, but on average we should be near normal for the winter season.

Here are the bullet points of Pastelok's forecast:

• Lake effect snow will begin in mid to late November and continuing into early January.
• The coldest time period should by from around Thanksgiving until just past New Years.
• The snowiest period should come during January and February.
• Expect frequent clipper storms to move through the lower Great Lakes.

So there you go.  The first look is for above normal snowfall with temperatures averaging about normal.

Relief is on the way!

If it got too cold too quickly for you, relief is on the way! After we get past Monday, conditions are going to improve considerably.  In fact, it's going to be a very nice fall week. Temperatures will average around normal in the upper to mid 60s and some days even higher than that. All that with lots of sunshine! So, just hang in there through Monday and life will be good.  :-)