Winter Storm Update (Monday evening)

A "WINTER STORM WARNING" will be in effect overnight tonight into Wednesday evening.

Map courtesy of www.accuweather.com

We will start to see the first effects of this winter weather event overnight tonight as snow moving across Indiana this evening reaches eastern Ohio. We will likely see 3-4 inches of new snow by daybreak.

Tomorrow snow will continue off and on with a total snow of 4-6 inches by evening.

The snow will change to freezing rain Tuesday evening (sometime between 7pm and midnight) and continue overnight.  By Wednesday morning total snowfall will be 5-7 inches with an ice accumulation of 1/4 to 1/2 inch. It will also become windy overnight.

The morning commute on Wednesday will be quite nasty with freezing rain and snow and the likelihood of downed power lines and tree branches.

During the morning Wednesday the freezing rain will change over to all snow with a total snowfall of 7-10 inches by evening.

On top of the snow, freezing rain, and wind temperatures on Wednesday will fall from near 30 in the morning into the lower 20s by evening.

Looks like a good one...stay home and enjoy!

Storm timing

Obviously, subject to change, but based on the current models, here's what I see happening in the Greater Akron area:

Light snow will begin tonight (Monday) after 9pm and accumulate 1-3 inches by morning.

Flurries and snow showers will fall during the day tomorrow.

Snow will begin again tomorrow (Tuesday) after dark.

Snow will mix with or change to freezing rain between 9pm and midnight. It will also become windy overnight.

By 3am the entire area should be getting freezing rain.

By 9am, ice buildup will range from 1/4" to 1/2".

I will update the times and totals as the storm gets closer and the exact track is determined.

Monday morning storm update

Things are still on track for a big weather event here in NE Ohio Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. There's not much showing up yet on radar out in the plains, but we should see things come together today and then move into the Ohio Valley.

For the Greater Akron area is looks like snow will begin Tuesday evening and continue overnight with freezing rain mixed in.  It's also going to get a bit windy. By Wednesday morning areas that see mostly snow will have 4-8 inches on the ground.  Most areas will see a mix of snow and freezing rain.  The freezing rain may produce 1/2" to 3/4" of ice.  If that actually happens, it will cause considerable damage to  power lines and trees.

The National Weather Service currently has us under a Winter Storm Watch.  That will be likely be  upgraded later today to a warning.

It shouldn't have to be this difficult

Why is it that we most always are on the edge of this or that?  The latest computer models are now trying to move the center of the storm right over top of us early Wednesday morning.  If that happens, warmer air will infiltrate parts of the region changing the snow and freezing rain to all rain for a period of time.  It's possible, as I hinted earlier, that the region could be split. It all depends upon what Fido decides to do.  (If that doesn't make sense to you, read my earlier posts.)

Map courtesy of www.accuweather.com

So, let me try to make some sense here.  First of all Monday night into Tuesday morning we will collect a few inches of snow (1-3) as a surge of warmer air moves through.  Tuesday night the joy begins with snow and freezing rain.  We will probably stay snow and freezing rain during most of the night.  If there is a changeover to rain it will occur just before rush hour.  The areas that remain all snow could see 6-8 inches by daybreak.  Where freezing rain occurs the snow total will be less, but ice buildup of 1/2" of more will be possible. That will likely cause tree branches to break and power lines to go down.  If a changeover to rain occurs, it will be during the morning hours, with snow returning in the afternoon.

Anyway you cut it, it's going to be a bit ugly Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Keep checking back.  As the storm starts moving out of the plains we will get a better idea where it wants to go.

Oh, by the way, the groundhog will not see his shadow on Wednesday. Woo Hoo!  The end of winter is near!  (Yeah...right.)

If it really gets this bad...it will be really bad

Checking out the Sunday morning forecast models.  This is scary.  Seriously...if things work out the way the models are predicting Wednesday is not going to be a day to be out and about. Here's what it looks like as of this morning.  Now, keep in mind that winter storms are like pets.  Sometimes you expect them to do one thing and they do something else...like "Come here Fido."  So, he gets up and walks over to the corner and lies down instead.

We will start off with a little teaser Monday night...like an inch or two by Tuesday morning. Nothing to write home about.  Then, after dark on Tuesday, the fun begins.

Scenario #1 - All Snow
The line between snow and ice will be pushing close to the Akron area Tuesday night and Wednesday.  In fact, the area could get split.  But, let's assume we have all snow. In those areas the snow will begin after dark on Tuesday.  By Wednesday morning some areas would have 6" to 8" of new snow on the ground.  The overnight snowfall rate could be 1"+ an hour at times. Snow would continue on Wednesday with several more inches falling along with strong, gusty winds and blowing and drifting snow.

Scenario #2 - Snow and Ice
This is the one that is really frightening.  If this occurs, the area could be shut down for a period of time.  The models are printing out from 1/2" to over 1" of ice buildup overnight Tuesday.  That much ice would cause havoc on tree branches and power lines, not to mention roadways. With this scenario, snowfall will  be cut back considerably to less than 6" total by Wednesday evening. Nonetheless, the area would become immobile by Wednesday morning.

Whichever scenario develops, we should see things back off by late in the day Wednesday.  With Lake Erie frozen, we won't have to worry too much about lake effect.  That's the one good thing in the forecast.

Until we can get a more definite track on the storm, I would plan for the worst.  Stock up on food and plan for power outages. It's the millenium so it won't be that long until you can get back out (not like the 50s when people got stuck in their houses for a week at a time), but, then again, you may not want to go out for awhile.

More later...

Winter storm on the way

   Next week is looking rather nasty. Early in the week a storm system will move out of the Rockies, down into Texas, and then up the Ohio Valley. For us that means snow with perhaps a bit of sleet and freezing rain mixed in.

Map courtesy of www.AccuWeather.com

   Based on the current projections, the fun should begin in NE Ohio after midnight on Tuesday and continue into the day on Wednesday.  Forecast models are showing between 4-10 inches of snow, depending upon whether or not we mix in the freezing rain and sleet.  As always, the exact track of the storm will make a difference. On the current track the Greater Akron area should get lots of snow, but if the storm moves a bit farther north, then we will get the mix.  We won't really know until it happens. Anyway you look at it, overnight Tuesday and during the day Wednesday won't be so nice.
   More as we know it.  Meanwhile, plan ahead.

Below ZERO for the first time in nearly two years!

Wow!  What an exciting morning it was Saturday (22 January).  The temperature here at the Weather Center dropped to -4 degrees! This is the first time we dropped below zero since 5 February 2009.  That morning was also a -4 degrees.

Actually January and February of 2009 both had some rather cold days in them. January was the kicker though.  Remember the two mornings of January 16th and 17th when the temperature drooped to -14 degrees?  Now that was crisp!

Well, nothing like that is in our immediate future, although there is a hint in the models that we could get another really cold push of arctic air in February. Nothing for certain yet, but our friend Joe Bastardi over at AccuWeather is getting all excited.  We shall see.  Meanwhile, keep the dogs (or your cat) nearby just in case.

Enjoy!