It's interesting from this perspective to read the chatter about the upcoming fall season. As we went through the summer months of July and August the long range forecasts ended up being revised every few weeks. The forecasts and reality were not matching up. I'm sensing this same trend into fall.
Long range forecasters like to look back at previous years and match up temperature and precipitation trends with the current. These guys are having a difficult time...and the computer models aren't helping either. My gut feeling is not to buy too deeply into the long range forecasts.
Last winter, you'll recall, we expected the cold air to surge into NE Ohio right around Thanksgiving, then about mid-December, then around New Years, then... Well, we finally hit normal in April. The previous months were all above normal, just the opposite of what was initially expected. So, it goes. The trending right now is for temperatures in September and October to be normal to slightly above, just don't bet the farm on it.
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