Here comes Fall!

Rainfall tonight (Monday) and tomorrow (Tuesday) across our
area will total 3/4" to 1". You can see by the purple and red
that much heavier amounts of rain will fall to our southeast
and east.  (Map courtesy of NOAA)

Some real Fall weather is on the way to NE Ohio. A cold front will cross over the region tomorrow morning. The front combined with a rain system from the south will dump from 3/4" to 1" of rain across our area tonight and tomorrow.

After the front passes, daytime high temperatures will remain in the 60s and lower 70s the rest of this week right on through next week.

So, it's time to warm up the furnace and get out the sweaters and jackets. A real taste of Fall is on the way.

Rain, rain, where did you go?

Radar at 3pm Monday shows isolated
storms developing across northern Ohio.

I don't think anybody is complaining much, because it turned out to be a not-so-bad holiday weekend. As you know, we were predicting lots of clouds and rain, but it never happened. A rain band from Isaac moved through late day Saturday and that was just about it, except for a few other isolated areas of rain and storms. Just as Isaac stalled off the Louisiana coast when it was a hurricane, the remains headed north up the Mississippi and then stalled out over southern Illinois and Indiana. We expected the system to move to the east over the weekend but it did not. As a result, the rain never happened. This afternoon (Monday) while it has been cloudy and rainy in southern and central Ohio much of the morning, it's been mostly sunny and very muggy up here in the north. That has prompted some convective storms to develop across northern Ohio (see the radar map). This activity will continue until sunset, then dissipate. The same thing will likely happen tomorrow afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, I hope you had a pleasant Labor Day and if you had to work, thanks for laboring.

Holiday Weekend Update

The remnants of Isaac are expected to move through the Midwest into the lower Great Lakes. While timing is not certain, at the moment it looks like rainfall here will begin by late Sunday and continue into Monday, Labor Day. Based on current projections, total rainfall locally is expected to be ½” to 1” by midday Tuesday. Heavier rain is likely south of Canton.

Looking at the Labor Day weekend

Looking ahead week to the Labor Day weekend, it appears that we may have have a mixed bag of weather. It's early yet, but there is a possibility that we will have to deal with the remnants of what will become Hurricane Isaac. The forecast models show a blocking ridge in the southeast and thus the storm center will likely head up the Mississippi River and then angle across the lower Great Lakes. (see map)

Again,  it's too early to tell for sure what will happen, but if this scenario works out, we can expect Saturday to be an OK day with clouds increasing Saturday night. Sunday could be breezy with showers as the remnants move through.  Monday is still is a question.  Obviously, we will know more once Isaac makes landfall.

What's in the cards for fall?

It's interesting from this perspective to read the chatter about the upcoming fall season. As we went through the summer months of July and August the long range forecasts ended up being revised every few weeks. The forecasts and reality were not matching up. I'm sensing this same trend into fall.

Long range forecasters like to look back at previous years and match up temperature and precipitation trends with the current. These guys are having a difficult time...and the computer models aren't helping either. My gut feeling is not to buy too deeply into the long range forecasts.

Last winter, you'll recall, we expected the cold air to surge into NE Ohio right around Thanksgiving, then about mid-December, then around New Years, then...  Well, we finally hit normal in April. The previous months were all above normal, just the opposite of what was initially expected. So, it goes. The trending right now is for temperatures in September and October to be normal to slightly above, just don't bet the farm on it.

Bye-Bye July

It's time to say, "Good-bye" to the month of July.  It was indeed a toasty one, just like most of the summer so far.

According to statistics from the National Weather Service and NOAA, here is what July did for us nationwide:

• 171 all time highs were broken or tied
• Over 4,000 daily high temperatures were either tied or broken
• July produced the lowest number of tornadoes since 1951

In addition, this summer is on track to be at least the 3rd hottest summer since 1950 and may end up higher than that.

As for the greater Akron area, so far this summer we have had 22 days when the mercury hit 90 degrees or higher. By the way, there's more of that to come!

I think I'm looking forward to Fall.

19 days of 90+ this summer!

Today (Tuesday) was the 19th day this summer of our temperature reaching 90 degrees or higher. Here at the Weather Center in Streetsboro we topped out at 98. Officially at Akron/Canton the mercury hit 101 degrees on July 7th and 99 degrees on July 6th. This could end up only the 3rd highest this month. That's crazy!  Ha Ha!

The 90s started out in late May. May had two 90+ days, June had 10, and so far July has had 7. Add them up and that's 19 days of 90+ this summer.  That's way more than usual.

In fact, these temperatures are the hottest this century. Since 2000, prior to this summer, the highest was only 95 degrees in 2001 and 2002. Here's a look at the official Akron/Canton high temperatures this century:

The temperature hit 98 degrees this afternoon at the WSTB Weather Center

• 2000 - 87 degrees
• 2001 - 95
• 2002 - 95
• 2003 - 89
• 2004 - 87
• 2005 - 93
• 2006 - 92
• 2007 - 92
• 2008 - 91
• 2009 - 90
• 2010 - 92
• 2011 - 94
• 2012 - 101 (so far)